John Crawford, Nassau County Clerk of Courts & Comptroller

___STEVE’S MARKETPLACE ___

John Crawford is heading out on a road show with sobering news for any politicians who are still punch-drunk on spending.

Government — at all levels — will experience “shrinking tax revenues for some time to come,” he says.

Crawford is qualified with such opinions. He is the clerk of circuit courts and the comptroller for Nassau County. As part of his duties, he oversees the county’s finances, including some $60 million set aside for capital projects and reserves.

Others should heed Crawford’s message. He’ll tell his story of austerity to anyone who’ll listen — citizens, organizations, and, of course, political leaders.

He’s not trying to be sensational or dramatic. He believes with the conviction of a judge that property values in the state are not going to rebound anytime soon. This would mean the primary driver of tax receipts for Florida municipalities will continue along a long-term detour.

As property values decline because of a surplus of foreclosures and short sales in Florida, fewer taxes are generated — unless political leaders hike tax rates. Otherwise, government spending must continue to be curtailed. Instead of music to their ears, this is a depressing message that most politicians don’t want to hear on local or state levels.

“It’s not over — it’s just beginning,” says Crawford about declining tax receipts. “And politicians are in denial. They don’t get it … from the courthouse to the White House.”

So Crawford has assumed a role of messenger and hit the streets to deliver the news — whether county commissioners or others like it or not. “I’m going to put it out in the public’s view,” Crawford says.

Crawford shows a color-coded map of Florida that details delinquent or foreclosed mortgages by county. In Nassau County, more than 10 percent of mortgages are in trouble as of June.

In neighboring Duval County, the rate is slightly lower. But in South Florida, the delinquencies of at least 90 days range from 15 to 25 percent. This backlog will inevitably impact existing valuations, since distressed properties mostly sell at discounted prices.

“We’re fixing to get inundated (with foreclosures),” Crawford says. “We’ve always felt immune in Nassau County.”

This will also impact state revenues. This past year, Florida legislators have to plug a $3 billion budget shortfall. Next year will be as bad, or worse.

Within the county, some government bodies are raising tax rates to circumvent the declining property values. In Fernandina Beach, city commissioners even went out and borrowed $5.6 million for new projects.

Crawford winces at the thought of frivolous and irrational spending. He has urged county commissioners here to avoid such temptations, even with interest rates at historic lows.

“Here’s our neighbor … borrowing money,” Crawford says. “I worry about it infecting our county commissioners.”

Nassau County has compiled a sufficient safety net of reserves. But with $67 million in debt and another $30 million required to service these obligations, Crawford is urging commissioners to shun debt and follow a path of frugality. (County departments have reduced spending by as much as 10 percent each of the past few years.)

“All of the assumptions we’ve been able to rely on are all changing,” Crawford says. “Our needs are met. We didn’t come here today on a dirt road.”

Steve Nicklas

Hopefully, the road leading from here will be one of prosperity.

Steve Nicklas is a financial advisor with a major Wall Street firm who lives on Amelia Island. His business columns appear in several newspapers in North Florida. He can be reached at 904-753-0236 or at thenicklasteam2@msn.com.
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An adult-education course, “The Financial Planning Series,” will be held for six weeks at the Florida State College campus in Yulee. Local financial advisor/columnist Steve Nicklas will lead the individual classes, which will feature guest speakers addressing an array of important financial topics.
The classes will meet from 6:00 to 7:30 p.m. on Tuesdays beginning Oct. 4, 2011. The cost of the series is $55 and payable to FSCJ (phone 904-548-4432). The class topics will be: Oct. 4, 2011 — Navigating the global stock and bond markets; Oct. 11, 2011 — Protecting assets from taxes and inflation, featuring senior tax advisor Ed Hancock; Oct. 18, 2011 — Building an income stream for retirement, featuring Ellen Straebel, CFP/financial analyst with Nassau County; Oct. 25, 2011 — Planning your estate/passing assets to your heirs and avoiding probate, featuring Lorie Chism, attorney with Rogers Towers Law Firm; Nov. 1, 2011 — Investing with mutual funds and money managers, featuring Gregg Everett of Oppenheimer Mutual Funds; and Nov. 8, 2011 — Developing a financial plan, featuring senior banker Kim Harding.

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