After a long rising real estate market cycle lasting for more than a decade, what does the latest 2022 data reveal? Have rising interest rates put a lid on the housing market?
Just this week The Wall Street Journal reported “U.S. Mortgage Rates Hit 7.08%, Highest In More Than 20 Years,” compared to a rate of slightly over 3% one year ago. The sharp rise in rates during 2022 has knocked many would-be buyers out of the housing market due to affordability.
Take a look below at housing data published October 25, 2022, as reported by S & P Core Logic Case Shiller* for latest month of available housing data — August 2022 — compared to a year ago in August 2021.
Home Prices Nationally Up 13%, But Gains Are Decelerating
According to the S & P Core Logic Case Shiller Index, home prices nationally in the USA were up 13% in August 2022 vs. the same month in 2021. (This data reflects the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions.) Two Florida cities — Miami and Tampa — are the top housing markets with highest home price gains.
Shrinkage Of Home Price Gains
Month-to-month nationally, the 13% August 2022 home price gain reflects a drop from the 15.6% annual gain in the previous month — July 2022 vs. a year ago in July 2021. S & P Core Logic Case Shiller indicates this percentage difference — 2.6% — is reportedly the largest deceleration since the index began back in 1987.
Amelia Island Record Home Sale
On a local note, here on this northeast Florida barrier island, an oceanfront home within Amelia Island Plantation recently fetched $13,350,000. This significant sale is reportedly the top home sales price achieved in all of northeast Florida year-to-date 2022. Public records at the Nassau County, Florida Clerk’s office indicate this closed home sale transaction was recorded on October 18, 2022.
Here in Nassau County, Florida, local housing data (year-to-year comparison between August 2022 and August 2021 for single-family homes), as reported by NEFAR indicates the following:
The median price of a single-family home in Nassau County for the month of August 2022 was $408,000, up 7% since the same month last year. While inventory “months supply” of homes in Nassau remains at a low level, 2.6 months, it has improved, up 66.4% from a worse shortage of homes last year. Looking at the broader northeast Florida region (six counties — Nassau, Duval, St. Johns, Baker, Clay & Putnam), the median price of a single-family home was up 18.2% in August 2022 ($390,000), compared to the same month a year ago. Months supply of inventory in northeast Florida was 2.3 in August 2022, up 123.5% from August 2021. (Housing data source: Northeast Florida Association of REALTORS® (NEFAR).
Strongest Region In USA — The Southeast
Returning to the national housing analysis reported by S & P Core Logic Case Shiller (news release dated October 25, 2022), “price growth continued strongest in the Southeast (+24.5%).”
Growth Rate Of Housing Prices Peaked in Spring 2022
“We see similar patterns in our 10-City Composite (up 12.1% in August vs. 14.9% in July) and our 20-City Composite (up 13.1% in August vs. 16.0% in July). Further, price gains decelerated in every one of our 20 cities.“
Even though there’s been home price gain deceleration, prices continue to remain “well above” what they were a year ago in all 20 cities.
Two Florida Cities Lead With Highest Home Price Gains
According to Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S & P DJI:
“These data show clearly that the growth rate of housing prices peaked in the spring of 2022 and has been declining ever since.” Furthermore, he indicated “Florida continues to hold the top two spots, with Miami (+28.6%) taking the lead over Tampa (+28.0%).”
In August 2022, “Charlotte (+21.3%) edged out Dallas (+20.2%) and Atlanta (+20.1%) for third position.”
Biggest Declines On America’s West Coast
The largest decline month-to-month were in west coast cities “with San Francisco (-4.3%), Seattle (-3.9%), and San Diego (-2.8%) falling the most,” states the news release analysis.
* FOOTNOTE: Case-Shiller and Case-Shiller Index are registered trademarks of CoreLogic Solutions, LLC. The statements herein are not endorsed by or provided in association or connection with CoreLogic, LLC.
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